The day after Thanksgiving — Black Friday — is typically the kickoff to the holiday shopping season. But a San Diego marketing expert thinks bargains can be found as early as this weekend because Turkey Day comes later than usual this year.
“We might see greater competition (among retailers) and you may see base discounts bump up into the 20% to 30% range, which will drive people into the door,” said Miro Copic, professor of marketing at San Diego State University.
Thanksgiving is celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November. This year, it falls late in the month (Nov. 28), which will reduce the time between Black Friday and Christmas by six days compared to a more typical shopping season.
“If people are looking at deals, some of the better ones will be this weekend” because of the compressed schedule, Copic said.
Regardless when consumers start, this shopping season looks to be a busy one.
The National Retail Federation predicts holiday spending will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023. That equates to purchases in November and December totaling as much as $989 billion, which would amount to roughly $33 billion more than last year.
While the rate of inflation is cooling, it’s still impacting family budgets and Copic said consumers “are trying to be smart about stretching their dollars” this holiday season.
According to software company Salesforce Inc., about one-fifth of online purchases will be on “dupes,” shorthand for duplicates, that are less expensive alternatives to pricey brand-name clothing, handbags and other items. Sites based in China such as Temu and Shein specialize in selling lookalikes.
“The shame of buying these things has gone,” Alice Sherwood, a British author who has worked as a retail strategy consultant, told Wired.com. “People no longer want to spend upwards of ($5,000) on the latest ‘it’ bag that might be out of vogue within a year.”
Another strategy? Copic says a growing number of customers are buying now and paying later. E-commerce and financial services companies such as Sweden-based Klarna work out the payment details with buyers directly, instead of the retailers.
“At some point, between traditional credit card debt and (buy now-pay later), there may be a balloon payment in the coming year or two, but for now people are just doing that,” Copic said.
Facing stiff competition from online retailers such as Amazon, malls have tried to lure customers by becoming “destination locations” that offer not just shopping but food, entertainment and even areas for children to play.
“Younger shoppers, the ones in the 18-to-24 or 18-to-29 (demographic), are going to the mall in droves because they see it as a group activity and something that’s fun,” said Copic, who is also co-founder of San Diego-based Bottomline Marketing.
A record 183.4 million people plan to shop in stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That’s up from the previous record of 182 million in 2023 and 18.1 million more shoppers than five years ago.
Deloitte’s annual retail survey says U.S. consumers expect to spend $1,778 this holiday season, which is 8% more than last year.